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This pattern has been used by me to have some base on which I put my decisions. Off course, you need knowledge, at least some. You need to get facts first, educate (in most cases).
What's the worse thing that could happen? What's the worse thing that could happen?
Ensure it would not happen. Then you're ready to go.
I won't use / show any examples in this article. Figure it how you would use this questions when you would have next decision (probably: important) to make. Edit